
As the global Model Aircraft industry warily watches Comac’s progress in developing the C919 narrowbody airliner, new data suggests that the designers are not achieving the low weights expected of an advanced new design.
And while Comac is promising a 10% reduction in direct operating costs, the first batch of orders reveal that Chinese state airlines are even more reluctant to buy the aircraft than expected.
The letters of intent from the central government’s three big airlines—covering orders for only five C919s each for China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines—were far below the commitments for several hundred aircraft that industry sources say Comac sought at first.
By June, an order for about 100 was expected, after the airlines had persuaded the government that they should not be heavily exposed to the risk of a new aircraft from an inexperienced manufacturer. But when the letters of intent were signed at Airshow China here on Nov. 16, the figure of 100 was reached only by adding options. The exact order total was unclear, but it did not exceed 55.
The other customers were Hainan Airlines, leading the field with an order for 20 and no options, General Electric Commercial Aviation Services (Gecas) (10, and no options) and the leasing subsidiary of China Development Bank (orders or options totaling 10). The bank, tasked with supporting industry policy, is Comac’s financier.
Perhaps most notable was the unwillingness of the big three state airlines to take options on more than 15 C919s each, even though Comac’s program must envision them eventually operating hundreds apiece.
Considering that the C919 is one of 16 top-priority national technology projects demanded by the government, the ability of Beijing’s own airlines to avoid significant commitment to the aircraft is all the more remarkable (AW&ST Sept. 6, p. 48).
Comac is planning to build C919s at a rate of 150 a year, meaning that the program should exceed 2,000 units by the early 2030s. First flight is due in 2014 and first delivery in 2016.
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